Who will get to the Moon next

In light of some of the more resent posts concerning the exploration of the Moon and possible permanent posts there - Shaun Saunders asked me in email this question. (below) I thought I would bring this conversation to the blog and see what other comments we could garner. Please post your comments in that section. Please feel free!
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Shaun Wrote:
mmmm do you think the Chinese will beat the US to the moon? (i.e., to walk on it next?)

My Response:
they could...but will they? no....we could put another man on the moon in 5 years given enough drive. The tech is there just the hardware needs to be built....The Chinese? right now it looks like there are doing a lot of Internet spaceflight. You can't go by their present position in space though. They are not 40 years behind. The technology they need is close, but not close enough. Could they put a man on the moon inside 15 years? I don't see that as likely. The technology may be close but their experience in the shear scope is still quite rudimentary. But then the Russians did it.....so could the Chinese anything is possible.

Shaun Responds:
"But Paul, what the Chinese might lack in outright technology they make up for in beautful hand drawings and paintings of their space program..."

Paul responds:
rotf! oh my yes that is so true! It is so well done as well! Well...this went to hell quick! LOL!

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Shaun as you know is our science guy (and a damn good speculative fiction writer) and often posits question that really make you think. I would like to open more of our email conversations up to public discussion. We often have quite spirited debates between just the two of us. Please join in!